Marathon Time Predictor
Enter your information to get a transparent educational result. Predict your marathon or half marathon finish time from a recent race or training pace.
Enter your information to get a transparent educational result. Predict your marathon or half marathon finish time from a recent race or training pace.
Fill in the fields below for instant results
This tool is for informational purposes only. Always consult a qualified healthcare professional before making any health decisions.
Enter your details and click Calculate Results to see your personalized health analysis.
Accurately predicting your marathon or race time helps you set a realistic goal pace, plan your training, and avoid the most common racing mistake — going out too fast. Our predictor uses the Riegel formula (developed by Pete Riegel in 1977), which accounts for the exponential fatigue factor over increasing distances.
T2 = T1 × (D2/D1)^1.07, where T1 is your known time for distance D1, and T2 predicts your time for target distance D2. The 1.07 exponent represents how fatigue grows exponentially with distance — explaining why marathon pace is significantly slower than 10K pace, even for very fit runners.
This tool is intended as an educational estimate for people who understand the inputs and limitations described on this page. Whether it is appropriate depends on the calculation, your circumstances, and the decision you are trying to make.
Check the stated intended population before using the result. Children, pregnancy, diagnosed conditions, medicines, and unusual symptoms often require a different method or professional interpretation.
For a more complete health picture, pair this tool with our TDEE Calculator, VO2 Max Calculator, One Rep Max Calculator — together they give you a multi-dimensional view of the metrics that matter most to long-term wellbeing.
Getting accurate, actionable results from the Marathon Time Predictor depends on more than entering correct numbers. These are the most common errors that reduce the usefulness of your output:
Avoiding these pitfalls transforms this calculator from a one-time curiosity into a reliable instrument for genuine health monitoring and meaningful progress tracking over time.
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Educational purposes only — not medical advice. Always consult your doctor.